Coronavirus (Covid-19) Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the healthcare sector

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Economists and institutions have cut their forecasts and experts are predicting the potential onset of recessionary environments.

Global companies are also concerned about the rising risk of Covid-19, with thousands of the world’s leading companies explicitly mentioning its impact on their business in their latest company filings.

-4.8%

HSBC revised its global economic growth forecast for 2020 to -4.8% in May from -3.3% in April.

$8.5tn

Global economic output will fall by $8.5tn over next two years, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects.

Impact of Covid-19 on asset prices

- SECTOR IMPACT: MEDICAL -

As of 05 June 2020

Capnographs market impact

The capnographs market has had a sudden surge in 2020 due the rapid rise of COVID-19 cases globally. The market was valued at $520.1m before the pandemic, growing at a modest compound annual growth rate of 2.8%.

36,000 -> 48,000

2019

2020

Cancer Care Ontario reported that there were just over 36,000 CT scans done in Ontario between March 15 and May 10 of this year, compared to just over 48,000 during a similar time frame last year.

Respiratory devices market impact

4.1%

GlobalData’s forecast CAGR of the infusion systems market by 2025. The market is expected to reach $9.6bn in 2020.

Key mediCal market developments

Diagnostic imaging devices

While diagnostic imaging such as chest radiographs, computed tomography scanning, and ultrasound is being increasingly used for COVID-19 patients as the pandemic continues, diagnostic imaging tests of other conditions are suffering. To make up for these losses, some regions around the world are beginning to ramp up their diagnostic imaging services.

Ear, nose and throat devices

The sale of over-the-counter devices such as hearing aids has been negatively hit by the COVID-19 crisis, which has seen non-essential businesses being closed. This has caused manufacturers and distributors to become more reliant on distance selling, such as through online sales. In many countries, lockdown restrictions are relaxing, allowing some businesses to reopen, subject to implementing the necessary distancing and employee-customer protective measures. These measures may affect the model on which these businesses operate by reducing customer footfall. In addition, customers might be reluctant to purchase hearing aids in the same way as before, and distance selling may remain for some time, and even increase.

Healthcare information technology

Wearable devices can play a vital role in early warning of COVID-19 infections by combining essential vital signs with clinical symptomology. GlobalData forecasts the wearable technology sector will grow to $54.4Bbn in 2023, expanding at a CAGR of 19%. Research has recently expanded into whether the extensive data that wearable devices collect can predict the onset of the virus.

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05/22/2024 20:51:55

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Market insight in association witH

Can wearable devices be used to predict Covid-19?

Wearable devices can play a vital role in predicting certain diseases by combining essential vital signs with clinical symptomology. The use of wearable devices in a bid to combat Covid-19 has therefore been rampant. Research has recently expanded into whether the extensive data that wearable devices collect can predict the onset of the virus. Preliminary data from several studies has shown this is possible.

Researchers at Rockefeller Neuroscience Institute in the US reported that data from the Oura ring, a wearable sleep and activity tracker, can be combined with an app that measures vital signs to predict in advance whether an individual may develop Covid-19 symptoms. The device successfully predicted that an individual would experience symptoms such as a cough, fever, and shortness of breath up to three days before they manifested.

Additionally, the Scripps Research Translational Institute has started the DETECT (Digital Engagement & Tracking for Early Control & Treatment) Study, which uses devices such as Fitbit, Apple Watch, and Garmin among others for tracking heart-rate, activity, and sleep data and matching it with symptom reports submitted by participants to track potential cases of Covid-19. Early results from the study show that Fitbits can predict Covid-19 in 78% of the 14 patients studied.

Although these studies show promise, accuracy remains a concern. Many of the wearables being investigated measure different metrics, which may lead to biased results. Additionally, the wearable market is reliant on consumer purchases and price is one of the leading factors influencing consumers. Therefore, the high cost of wearables may deter the public from purchasing these devices.

Wearables are one of the fastest-growing sectors in the global technology landscape. According to GlobalData estimates, the wearable technology sector is set to reach $54.4bn by 2023, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19%, with smartwatches representing the largest and fastest-growing segment. Therefore, using wearable devices to track vital Covid-19 symptoms to identify patterns predicting onset is an attractive prospect. However, GlobalData expects there is still a long way to go before these devices can be used to effectively predict Covid-19.

For more insight and data, visit GlobalData's Medical Intelligence Centre

Image: Ouraring

05/22/2024 20:51:56

Market insight in association witH

Ten million Covid-19 antibody tests will strengthen UK’s testing strategy

The purpose of a Covid-19 antibody test is to determine whether or not a patient has had the disease, and possibly, whether or not they are now immune to re-infection. As such, Covid-19 antibody tests can be used to determine a country’s total immunity to the disease, which will allow social restrictions to ease and businesses to re-open.

The test uses a blood sample to identify antibodies and determine whether or not an individual has developed an immune reaction to the coronavirus. Antibodies are proteins secreted into the blood that bind to invading pathogens such as the novel coronavirus and alert the immune system to attack and destroy the virus.

The UK recently signed a contract with leading biotech companies Roche and Abbott for the supply of over 10,000,000 Covid-19 antibody tests. This number of tests would determine the immunity status for approximately 15% of the UK’s population. Although more testing will be necessary for a comprehensive understanding of the nation’s immunity to Covid-19, this is certainly a step in the right direction for the UK’s five key pillar national testing strategy, which was announced by the secretary of state on 2 April. Pillar three outlines mass antibody testing to help determine whether individuals have immunity to Covid-19.

The Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Covid-19 antibody test received the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) emergency use authorisation (EUA) on 3 May and is currently being used at more than 20 commercial and hospital lab sites across the US, including a partnership with one of the largest commercial diagnostic labs in the US, LabCorp. With plans to make the Covid-19 antibody test available in more than 200 sites over the next few weeks, wide adoption in the US is expected. Roche plans to provide tens of millions of tests in May for countries accepting the CE mark, as well as in the US and has plans to further ramp up manufacturing capacity, starting in June.

Abbott has shipped more than 7.2 million ARCHITECT Covid-19 antibody tests across the US. Abbott’s Alinity i Covid-19 antibody test was granted FDA EUA on 11 May and is the company’s second Covid-19 antibody test. While the ARCHITECT has been granted CE marking, Abbott is in the process of receiving CE marking for its Alinity i Covid-19 antibody test so that it can also be shipped to countries accepting the CE mark. Abbott plans to ship nearly 30 million antibody tests globally in May across its ARCHITECT and Alinity i platforms and will have capacity for 60 million tests in June.

According to a study released by the New York University (NYU) on May 12, Abbott’s ID NOW Covid-19 rapid polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test missed 33.3%–48.4% of positive samples detected by the next-fastest PCR test on the market Cepheid’s Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2 test. On 21 May, Abbott Laboratories released interim data from a clinical study that has 256 enrolled patients so far and includes five urgent care centres in New Jersey, Tennessee, Louisiana, Texas and South Carolina in the US. The interim analysis demonstrated that the ID NOW Covid-19 device had a sensitivity performance of 94.7% and a specificity performance of 98.6%.

Two other clinical studies sponsored by Abbott Laboratories demonstrated performance sensitivities of 83.3%–91.3% and specificities of 96.5%–100%. To date, Abbott has shipped more than 1.7 million ID NOW tests across the US. Despite a dip in Abbott’s stock following the NYU study, GlobalData expects that the controversy surrounding Abbott’s ID NOW Covid-19 test will not significantly impact Abbott’s bottom line, especially now as the company has been awarded a contract by the UK Government, which signals a vote of confidence.

For more insight and data, visit GlobalData's Medical Intelligence Centre

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05/22/2024 20:51:56