Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 20 January

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2021 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

The IMF projects the Indian economy to grow by 8.8% in 2021, following an estimated 10.3% contraction in 2020.

4% 

The World Bank forecasts global economic growth at 4% in 2021 as vaccine rollout becomes widespread.

8.3%

Jobless rate in the Euro zone declined to 8.3% in November 2020, from 8.4% in the previous month, according to Eurostat.

Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices

- SECTOR IMPACT: MEDICAL DEVICES -

Latest update: 11 January

financial impact and relief

$892bn

In December 2020, the US Congress passed a Covid-19 relief package (Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2021) worth $892bn and $1.4tn worth of
funding for federal programmes.

8%

During December, the number of posted jobs across 593 medical device companies tracked by GlobalData fell by 8%.

Anesthesia and Respiratory Devices 

GlobalData expects global demand for ventilators will steadily return to normal in the coming quarters, with a gradual decrease in sales due to its load purchasing in 2020. Most of the new ventilators that were purchased due to the Covid-19 crisis are being held in reserve.


The actual usage of ventilators has proven to be lower than original projections, as the pandemic has progressed and clinical knowledge has improved. Nevertheless, considering the surging cases in North America and Europe, the stock can be used in the case of future waves of Covid-19 in 2021. The market is expected to reach $1.5bn by 2028, led by the intensive care unit ventilators segment.


Additionally, as most elective procedures resumed gradually, most anaesthesia-related devices markets have recovered to 90% of pre-Covid-19 levels in the US since September. Although future waves of Covid-19 may hit elective procedures again in 2021, GlobalData expects the market to keep growing in the coming quarter due to accumulated underlying demand.

Key Medical device market developments

Cardiovascular devices

There were 401 deals in the cardiovascular sector in 2020; more than four times the amount of the next sector, general surgery.


Notably, Koninklijke Philips acquired Intact Vascular LLC for $360m, which will significantly expand Philips’ capabilities in the area of minimally invasive surgery (MIS) at a time when this technique will likely see additional growth due to Covid-19. 


MIS significantly improves patient outcomes, reduces recovery times and, importantly, can lead to a decrease in nosocomial infections at a time when around a quarter of Covid-19 cases are found in hospitals. 


General surgery devices

By the end of Q3 2020, most markets in general surgery started to recover from the large decline in revenue observed in Q2 2019. This trend continued throughout Q4 2020, despite a resurgence in the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide. 


While medical device markets based on elective procedures, such as cosmetics and bariatric surgeries were most severely impacted in 2020, these markets are experiencing the fastest recovery.


In 2021, GlobalData does not expect hospital-based procedures to be as severely impacted as in 2020, since hospitals are much better prepared to cope with the burden of the pandemic.

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